Computer tracks for Invest 90L. (Credit: South Florida Water Management District)

February 6, 2012
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2012 February 05 Entry

Surprise tropical disturbance brewing in Caribbean; may bring rain to area

storm_90.jpgComputer tracks for Invest 90L. (Credit: South Florida Water Management District)

The first “Super Bowl Sunday” tropical disturbance in history formed in the northwestern Caribbean, and some forecasters were giving it a 20 percent chance of development into a tropical or sub-tropical storm or depression.

The surprise system, designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center, comes 60 years after the unprecedented Groundhog Day tropical storm that battered South Florida with 65 mph winds in 1952.

An invest is an area of disturbed weather that NHC forecasters have decided bears watching for possible tropical development.

The storm was expected to merge with a cold front and move over South Florida on Monday, “bringing heavy rains of 1 – 3 inches and sustained winds of 20 – 25 mph,” said hurricane expert Jeff Masters of Weather Underground. “If it develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, which I put at a 20 percent chance, the winds and rains will be higher.”

He said 90L had “a modest but growing area of heavy thunderstorms” around its center and that conditions, including upper atmospheric wind shear, were “marginally favorable” for further development.

At the Central Florida Hurricane Center, an organization of meteorologists and tropical storm aficianados not connected with the National Hurricane Center, weather watchers were giving the system a 10-20 percent chance of development.

On Sunday afternoon, the low pressure area was centered at 22N 86W, or about 500 miles southwest of Palm Beach. Computer models showed it moving over the Florida peninsula, probably late Monday.

The National Weather Service in Miami predicted up to 2 inches of rain for “deep South Florida” and the coastal metro areas, with locally heavier amounts. Windy conditions were not in the official forecast.

Forecasters put rain chances for Palm Beach at 70 percent for Sunday night, rising to 80 percent on Monday. Rain chances diminish to 20 percent by Tuesday.

The 2012 hurricane season doesn’t offically begin until June 1, although systems have been known to form in May and even April. The first name on the list this year is Alberto.

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GUS ALIBERTI

February 6, 2012 4:41 AM | Link to this

I REALLY THING WE SHOULD RAISE THE HURRICANE SCALE LEVEL TO A CAT #6 156 MPH
THATS WHAT I REALLY THINK.

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